But was he seeing ghosts because the Kansas City Chiefs
defense was that good or has Phillip Rivers lost his physical giftedness that
all football players require in order to perform their duties adequately? The
answer is the latter. Aside from his 50-yard completion to wide receiver, Mike Williams,
who deserves more credit for making that catch than Rivers for making that the
throw, Rivers looked awful. However, Rivers has looked bad this whole season.
Rivers’ passer rating (85.5) ranks in the bottom 10 of all current starting
quarterbacks and has thrown the second most interceptions this year (Jameis
Winston is last). In fact, Rivers has thrown a combined seven interceptions in
just his last two games. But it’s not just the picks that are so embarrassing
but rather the blatantly ugly throws being made that leaves everyone scratching
their heads and wondering, “is he trying to lose the game?” Specifically, the
failed two-minute drive, which was capped by Rivers’ fourth pick during the
game, had Rivers going four for eleven passing. One of these misses went
straight into the ground and nosedived just a yard away from where Rivers was
standing. This “pass” was so awkward that the refs at first called it a fumble
and allowed the play to continue (upon review it was ruled an incomplete
forward pass). One missed pass in this drive occurred when Rivers threw a bomb,
out of bounds, and the nearest receiver was tripled covered. Another missed
throw was to a wide-open receiver who ran a post route, but the ball fell five
to seven yards short (and it wasn’t tipped).
Everyone on the Chargers played better than the Chiefs
except for Phillip Rivers. The Chargers held last year’s MVP, Kansas City
Chiefs’ quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, to just 63 yards passing in the first
half. The Chargers had more first downs, more time of possession, more total
yards, more passing yards, more plays and more total yards per play than the
Chiefs. Actually, if it wasn’t for Rivers’ four picks, the Chargers would have
probably won the game. This is the worst part about Phillip Rivers’ whole
demise – everyone realizes that the future hall of fame quarterback is no
longer winning games but losing games for the Chargers. With Rivers’ contract
up in 2020, it seems all too likely that the Chargers will move on from Rivers.
The demise of Rivers and the decision to move on from him is
no easy maneuver. Below are Rivers’, Eli Manning’s, and Peyton Manning’s Quarter
Back Rating statistics (“QBR”) and interceptions from the 2006 through the 2018
seasons (note that Peyton’s information goes through 2015 as that was the year
he retired).
To ascertain a trend for when it is typical to depart from a
franchise quarterback is difficult to determine from the metrics above. Peyton
Manning’s QBR and interceptions correlate together. For instance, during Peyton’s
worse year, 2015 (and the last year he played), he had his worse QBR and also
threw his most picks. Eli is more erratic in that even when he throws a lot of
picks (i.e. 2010) his QBR is still holding steady at around 60. However, notice
that since 2015 his QBR has tanked and has never been able to come up above 50,
even though his interceptions are fewer than in years prior. It’s no surprise
that Eli was benched this year as his play has been decreasing for the past
four years. Not only the current play on the field, but the past data points
indicate he was in decline. Rivers, on the other hand, is hard to predict. He has
been able to steadily increase his QBR and lower his interceptions since 2015. Whereas
Eli had a history of decline, Rivers has a recent history of improvement.
Therefore, The
Cornercube predicts that Rivers will have a decline similar to what Peyton
Manning had in his 2015 season. In 2014 Peyton had a QBR of 72 and then suddenly
dropped to a QBR of 49.3 during the 2015 season. Rivers had a QBR of 69.1 in
2018 and currently holds a QBR of 46.0 through Week 11 of the 2019 NFL season.
Both had drastic QBR drops from one season to the next and the QBRs are under
50. For a veteran quarterback to have a QBR under 50 is a tell-tale sign that
the end is near. For Peyton he retired immediately after the 2015 season.
There are certain things a viewer is expected to see when
watching Phillip Rivers play: (1) having to hear how many kids he has; (2)
having to hear how he and Eli Manning were traded during the 2004 NFL draft; (3) seeing
him cry and yell (he is a tool);
(4) and now watching him throw picks, panic in the pocket, and do anything he
can to go three and out so he no longer has to be on the field. Peyton Manning
might have physically deteriorated in 2015, but he didn’t panic.