By Kris Mead
Last night I had the pleasure to watch four men converse
about nonsense for twenty-nine minutes. ESPN’s
College Football Playoff Selection Committee Show (“CFP Show”) is a
thirty-minute TV airing that could be better done without being a show all by
itself. The TV program’s purpose is to provide the American people with the
College Football Selection Committee’s Playoff Rankings for each week. The most
important rankings are the last rankings – after all the conference
championships are covered. ESPN would be better off simply posting the ranking
online like a high school basketball coach posting the list of players who made
the team does on the outside of his office door.
The first sixty seconds are worthwhile since that’s when
America gets to see what America has been waiting for – the Committee’s revised
top 25 ranking. More importantly, especially as the season gets near the end,
America only cares about the top 6 – those who have a shot at making the
College Football Playoffs. After this critical sixty seconds is up, the four
commentators will then commence with their 29 minutes of slippery slope
illogical fallacies. In this installment, the main discussion was whether
number 6 Ohio State would make the playoff over number 5 Oklahoma. Jesse
Palmer, a Canadian, turned University of Florida quarterback, turned star on
ABC’s show The Bachelor, believed
that Ohio State was the better team because of how they played against, at the
time ranked number 4, Michigan. Palmer believed that that single game was
enough for Ohio State to discredit all of Oklahoma’s accomplishments. However,
Palmer wasn’t the only pearly white toothed, well groomed, fitted suit wearing,
former SEC football player, mid thirty-year-old, who could muster an illogical
fallacy as David Pollack wanted to give his take on the Oklahoma v. Ohio State
debate too. Pollack believed, almost as if someone (possibly a producer??) told
him to pick the opposite side of Palmer, stated that Oklahoma should beat out
Ohio State as they have proven consistently that they can play effectively
against good competition, albeit never played as complete a game as what Ohio
State displayed against Michigan. Then the last commentator is the man who
always seems upset with his “own” opinions, as if he might not really believe
his own opinions but really takes the side that ESPN has instructed him to argue, in Joey Galloway. I believe Galloway realizes that
what he is about to say is either obvious or obviously stupid, but knowing ESPN
writes his checks, Joey has no choice but to abide by their senseless nonsense
(as an aside, Galloway resembles how most Americans feel at work). In this
episode Joey decided to let everyone know that because Alabama is so good, and
the fact that last year Alabama got into the playoffs without even being in the
SEC conference championship game, that that was enough for Alabama to
rightfully get in this year. As much as Joey’s opinion is obvious, as even
Pollack and Palmer agreed with him, his reasoning is sound – as it rests upon
past precedent or, stare decisis.
The CFP Show will
become less and less necessary so long as (1) the College Football Playoffs
stay at a relatively small number, such as 4 and (2) more past precedent is
established. The very first College Football Playoff was, and as anticipated,
unpredictable for the very fact that nothing like this had been tried in
college football before. However, the same debate occurred then as is occurring
now – a fight for the number 4 slot. In 2014 it was a three-way fight between
Baylor, TCU, and Ohio State. The precedent that was established was that a
conference championship game, which the Big Ten had and Ohio State won
(handedly as they beat Wisconsin 59-0), and the Big 12 did not have, keeping TCU/Baylor
out of the playoff. This precedent made sense as the other three playoff teams
were conference champions as well – Alabama (SEC), Oregon (PAC-12), and Florida
State (ACC). This precedent caused the Big 12 to apply for a conference
championship game, which required the Big 12 to receive a waiver from the NCAA,
since a conference must have at least 12 teams in order to have a conference
championship.
In the 2015-2016 College Football Playoff year the
“confusion” was minimal, but the results were dismal. The four teams to make
the playoffs were all conference champions: Clemson (ACC), Alabama (SEC),
Oklahoma (Big 12), and Michigan State (Big Ten). However, the semifinals were
anything but eventful. Clemson devoured Oklahoma 31-17 and Alabama routed Michigan
State 38-0. These games were so brutal that ESPN gave $20 million back to
advertisers because viewership was so low. So, whether the NCAA wants to admit
it or not, another precedent was set: make sure the playoffs are competitive.
So, if conference champions don’t determine whether a team is competitive, what
does? A la the 2016-2017 College Football Playoffs.
In the 2016-2017 College Football Playoffs there was
unpredictability as one of the four playoffs team was not a conference champion
– Ohio State. The playoff participants were: Clemson (ACC Champs), Alabama (SEC
Champs), Washington (PAC-12 Champs), and Ohio State (Big Ten). Penn State, who
won the Big Ten and beat Ohio State in the regular season, was left out of the
playoffs. Ironically the Selection Committee noted that the choice was not
between Ohio State and Penn State, but rather Washington and Penn State. The
Committee noted that both Washington and Penn State had weak out of conference
schedules, but because Penn State had a loss to Pittsburgh and Michigan, that
that was the reason why they were left out. It’s still hard not to notice the
elephant in the room – Ohio State. Ohio State was the anomaly. The committee believed that although Ohio
State failed to win its conference and its division, it was still more talented
than its conference champion, and a team that beat Ohio State head to head, in
Penn State. However, the semifinal results were still not inspiring – Alabama easily
defeated Washington 24-7 and Clemson destroyed Ohio State 31-0. However,
viewership was up, albeit not as much as it was for the first college football
playoffs. It did help that the
semi-finals were not on Thursdays. Precedent: talent overtakes conference
champions and head to head wins don’t matter.
So, if the 2015-2016 committee can be considered the most
“conservative,” and 2016-2017 the most “extreme”, then the 2017-2018 committee
can be considered the most “pragmatic.” In this playoff selection the committee
would use precedents from the past to come to their conclusions. First the
playoff teams were: Clemson (ACC Champs), Georgia (SEC Champs), Oklahoma (Big
12 Champs), and Alabama (SEC). Here the committee did two things. First it
strictly picked the best four teams. This
is exemplified by the second factor – that the committee chose two teams from
the same conference – the SEC champion, Georgia, and Alabama. Notice, that the
runner-up in the SEC, or the team that lost to Georgia in the SEC championship,
Auburn, was not included in the playoffs. The precedent was set: that past
success in the playoffs, holds equity. This precedent would pay off as the
semifinals and the championship were competitive. Alabama beat Georgia, in
overtime, to win the national championship.
So, let’s turn to the present. Currently there are six teams
in contention for the four playoff spots: Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame,
Georgia, Oklahoma, and Ohio State. The issue that the CFP Show focuses on is whether Ohio State or Oklahoma should get
in. This argument assumes that Georgia will lose to Alabama in the SEC
Championship game, however, it depends how close the loss is. For instance, if
Georgia only loses to Alabama by less than seven points, would either Oklahoma
or Ohio State be able to (1) beat Alabama but, more importantly, (2) keep it so
competitive that they are within a score of beating Alabama? If the answer to
either of these questions is no, then even with Georgia’s SEC championship loss
they would still be the “best” team to play any of the other teams ahead of it.
So the precedent would be: not all wins are created equally, neither are all
losses.