Are Running Backs Running Out of Time?

With health worker strikes occurring across the globe, from the New York State Nurses Association to the United Kingdom’s National Health Service, it feels a bit dirty writing about the pay treatment that NFL running backs are “running” into.

However, this is The CornerCube and “dirty” is our middle name! We’re back, people!

To summarize the uproar raging across the NFL’s million dollar employees is the fact that three of its running backs – Las Vegas’ Josh Jacobs and Dallas’ Tony Pollard – failed to reach contract extensions with their respective teams and were franchise tagged, while another, New York Giant’s Saquon Barkley just recently inked out a one year contract (which is really a glorified franchise tag). To provide even more clarity, the franchise tag is a one-year contract that every NFL team is permitted to use once per offseason and, along with a few other factors, the value of the franchise tag salary is determined from the average of the top-five salaries of a position. In this case, each of the three aforementioned running backs are set to make 10.1 million dollars under the franchise tag this year. Generally a franchise tag is something that benefits a team more than the player who receives such franchise tag, as the player is unable to negotiate the terms and the owner/team avoid any long-term obligations in case the player is hurt or under performs.

Saquon Barkley Trying to Find a Contract

To add insult to even more injury is the fact that the NFL running back market has seen a few notable playmakers either released by their current team or not re-signed. For instance, Ezekial Elliot, who prior to being released by the Dallas Cowboys was the highest paid active NFL running back, and Dalvin Cook, of the Minnesota Vikings, are both currently free agents without too many, if any, takers knocking.

Where Will He Land?

Christian McCaffrey, a running back for the San Francisco 49ers and who currently holds the second highest valued running back contract per Spotrac,  took to Twitter to protest  the “criminal” treatment his fellow running backs are receiving. However, this protest should have been acted on  much sooner,  as the downfall in running back pay has been coming at us like Nick Chubb steaming out of the back field for years. 

The first factor is the very sense that the way the game of football in the NFL is being played is changing drastically from a smash mouth, power running style to a more spread, fast pace, and pass first game. Bill Barnwell, at ESPN, noted that , the number of running backs selected in the NFL Draft’s first round peaked between 1986-1990 at 55%, and has bottomed out of late at 26.5% between 2016-2022. This is significant because where one is drafted in the NFL Draft establishes their initial contract pay. In the case of a first-round draft pick, their pay is typically much higher than those selected in later rounds and also is usually fully guaranteed. The initial higher pay that a first draft pick receives permits them, presuming they play well, to have a greater bargaining chip when asking for more pay when their second contract comes about (Ezekial Elliot is a good example).

The change of play style can also be visualized through the average position salary that players have received between 2013 and 2022 (Figure 1). The running back’s pay, aside from the punter, has increased the least at only 20%, while it is also the third lowest average position salary at $1.833M. This average only beats out the fullback, punter, and long snapper. An average NFL kicker makes more than an average NFL running back.

 

Offensively it is telling to see where the money has been flowing since 2013 and continues to flow – the quarterback, his edge protectors (tackles) and pass catchers (tight ends and wide receivers). All this is evidence that the pass is the preferred method of offense in the NFL. Moreover, the fact that quarterbacks are more involved in the run game (Justin Fields, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Jalen Hurts) takes value and purpose away from the running back’s primary purpose and diverts it to the most important position on the field. As Barnwell noted, “from 2006 to 2010, quarterbacks accounted for 9.6% of the league’s rush attempts, including kneel-downs and scrambles. Over the past five years, that mark has risen to 14.5%.”

Other factors that have contributed to the running back’s value decrease are the fact that teams are increasing the use of analytics and teams no longer require a lead back, but instead are primarily using a “running back by committee” method. The analytics have shown that teams should rotate their running backs throughout the game to maintain their run efficiency. For further evidence to this effect, Barnwell’s analysis indicates that starting running backs have rushed on average 4.26 yards per carry between 2006 and 2010, while over the past five years that number has increased, despite the starting rusher having less carrying attempts, to 4.42 yards per attempt. In other words, if starting running backs are running less but the run game is becoming more efficient, the lead back’s need for higher pay is reduced.

So aside from no more running backs coming into the NFL and causing a reduce supply of running backs, what can NFL running backs do to either increase their pay or avoid being released/franchise tagged?

The first is that the modern NFL running back must be able to do more than run and take hand offs. They must be able to run pass routes, not only out of the back field but also from the line of scrimmage. The reason why Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffery, and Alvin Kamara are ranked as some of the highest- earning running backs in the NFL is because they don’t just run – they are each an extreme threat in the passing game. The second, but much harder obstacle to achieve, is for running backs to demand that their initial entry salaries be raised to that of what they would expect to receive in their second contract. The idea here is that if owners believe that a running back’s production depletes as they age, and therefore are worth less, then a running back should be paid the most when they are expected to perform their best – when they initially enter the NFL. However, the issue here is that this (i) does nothing for the veteran running backs currently trying to sign with a team or reach an extension and (ii) it would require the owners to renegotiate the NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement, which seems even more unlikely than the Browns winning the Super Bowl anytime soon.

However, like many things, I think over time the game of football will evolve again. As NFL defenses adjust to the spread, pass happy offenses, the NFL offenses will evolve (or maybe revert) to a run first operation, similar to years long ago. Although, like all creative destruction, it does nothing to relieve  the pain that the current veteran NFL running backs are feeling. Sorry.