TEXAS ISN'T BIG ENOUGH FOR THE TWO OF US

 

Originally, in a COVID free world (what was that like again?), the Longhorns would be welcoming the chance to slaughter the Big 12’s bottom feeder, the University of Kansas, but this year the game has been postponed until December 12, due to Kansas’ team being infected by COVID.  Postponement is the last thing that Tom Herman, the head football coach at the University of Texas at Austin, wanted to hear and he has heard a lot this week. With the postponement, Texas will have another off week and when they do play again, presumably on November 27 against Iowa State, it will have been three weeks since they last competed.

On Monday of this week, Herman was asked about the possibility that Urban Meyer will replace him at the end of this season. An awkward question to have to answer in any work setting, but even more so when asked in front of the media. Surprisingly, Herman did not give a Bill Belichick “grumble”.  Instead, he provided a litany of reasons how this sort of rumor hurts the Texas football program. After Herman first addressed how he believes “unnamed sources” cannot be factual (Deep Throat in Watergate takes offence), he then provided a more reasonable consequence in that the rumor hurts recruiting.

Herman has lost several top recruits this year and has been lagging behind his peers in gaining the top tier recruits from the football rich state of Texas. In late October Quinn Ewers, the number one recruit in the 2022 ESPN 300 and a Texas native, de-committed from the Longhorns (and just committed to The Ohio State University).  According to Rivals.com, a college football and basketball recruiting database, the Longhorns have received commitments from just ten of the top 100 Texas football recruits. Although many are undecided, the Longhorns have only received one commitment from any of the top ten Texas state recruits. Despite all of this, Herman’s 2021 recruiting class is ranked 17^th in the nation and his previous three recruiting classes (2020, 2019, and 2018) have all ranked in the top 15 in the nation, including two in the top 5 – 2018 and 2019.

Texas’ play on the field has been better than compared to years past, but at a university that expects to be in the national championship conversation each year, and with the hype that came with Herman’s hiring, Herman’s successful recruiting has not translated into credible wins. “Credible Wins” at a university that expects to be top tier are as follows: rivalries, top 25 wins, conference championship appearances/wins, team progression and The College Football Playoff appearances/wins. The latter category still alludes Herman and his Longhorns and so it will not be discussed in the analysis.

ANALYSIS

Rivalries

According to Wikipedia, the University of Texas has three active football rivalries (three are dormant as Nebraska, Arkansas, and Texas A&M no longer playing in the same conference as Texas), which are TCU, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma. Oklahoma, of course, has been ruling the Big 12 nearly every year for the past decade. Herman, with over four years of coaching at Texas, has a combined record of 5-8 against his rivals, having gone 1-3 and 1-4 against TCU and Oklahoma, respectively. If Baylor, another Big 12 Texas school, is included in this analysis then Herman would have a record of 8-9. Not awful, but for standards expected at a Blue Blood football school like Texas, this is not tolerable over four seasons.

Top 25 Victories

Texas has a 9-9 record against Top 25 teams, while Herman has been the head coach. Granted that Texas’ worst sustained losses against top 25 schools came in Herman’s first year at the helm – going 1-4. In order to make it to the Big 12 Championship Game and to be considered for the College Football Playoffs a team must regularly win against top 25 teams.

Conference Championship Appearances

Herman has a lone Big 12 Conference Championship appearance, which occurred during the 2018 season, losing to their archrival – the Oklahoma Sooners. What adds some level of distain is that Oklahoma had lost to Texas in their regular season head-to-head matchup. Fans were left feeling disappointment at the loss but also hopeful towards the future. It had not been since 2009 that Texas had a ten-win season and made a Conference Championship appearance.

Herman and the Texas Longhorns had high hopes entering the 2019 football campaign. After coming off a spectacular Sugar Bowl victory over the University of Georgia, the AP Poll had them ranked tenth in the nation. The Longhorns had a brutal schedule, losing to LSU (ranked 6^th at the time) and Oklahoma (ranked 6^th at the time) by just a touchdown. However, the wheels fully came off when Texas lost to unranked TCU and Iowa State. Herman would roll to an 8-5 finish. Suffice to say expectations were not met.

In response to the disappointing 2019 campaign, Herman decided to overhaul his coaching staff by replacing both coordinators and several other assistant coaches. The team was ranked 14^th in the nation at the beginning of the year, Herman’s 2018 (top 4) recruiting class were nearly all starters, and the media had his team pegged to be in the College Football Playoff hunt. That would be all but washed away when Herman’s 9^th ranked squad was upset by unranked and their rival TCU.  

There is still hope that Texas can make and win the Big 12 Championship game. Texas faces 17^th ranked Iowa State next week, followed by Kansas State and Kansas. All of these are winnable games for the Longhorns. Additionally, assuming Texas makes the Big 12 Championship Game, Texas has a credible chance of defeating whichever Oklahoma team they face.  Oklahoma State lost to Texas in the regular season (Oklahoma State’s only loss) and it took Oklahoma four overtimes to defeat Texas in the regular season. From there Texas needs to hope that either one of the other Power Five schools’ conference champions has two losses or more, the Playoff Committee looks down on conferences that play only eight or seven games (i.e. Big Ten, PAC-12), and/or the Playoff Committee ignores probable undefeated Cincinnati and BYU. The last reason seems most likely simply because the NCAA is greedy.

Progression

Herman’s recruiting woes certainly are not assisted by the unverified rumors that Urban Meyer is going to replace him at the end of the season, but it may be due to the lack of progression Herman has overseen at Texas. From 2017 to 2020, Herman’s defenses, in terms of points allowed per game, have worsened year to year. In 2017 Texas allowed 1.36 points per game on average, then 4.4 per game in 2018, 8.5 in 2019 and now 18.73 in 2020 (granted this season has not fully completed). Texas’ pass defense has been giving up on average five yards per pass over Herman’s tenure.

Lack of progression is Herman’s issue and is why rumors are swirling around him. At his only previous head coaching stop, two years at the University of Houston, Herman didn’t stay long enough to evaluate his first class of recruits. Herman went in his first year at Houston 13-1, while finishing his second and last year 9-3. Although 9-3 is not a bad record at all, but it is a drop off. Two years is not enough time to determine if a coach can develop his players and it probably would have served Texas to deliberate more judiciously before snatching up Herman.

CONCLUSION

Players want to play for a coach that will make them better. Until Herman does that, the rumors of his replacement will keep coming. Progression starts in the spring with conditioning, fundamentals, and practices, but is graded during rivalry games, top 25 victories, and conference championship games. Rumor clouds are formed when the latter three are unmet and will continue swirling until they are.