In Loving Memory of Phillip Michael Rivers (37 years)

It was the largest funeral that your correspondent had ever attended. An estimated 76,000 people were boxed into Azteca Stadium in Mexico City to watch the burial of Phillip Rivers. The procession lasted for about three and half hours and it was a gruesome procession at that. It wasn’t just the fact that Rivers threw four interceptions, fumbled the ball twice (one in which he lost), had the ball awkwardly fall out of his hands (luckily for him it was called an incomplete pass and not another fumble) and the fact that at one point Rivers threw a bullet pass right into the helmet of the Chiefs’ defensive lineman, Chris Jones. No, it was all of this combined with the fact that Rivers looked like a man who was shell shocked. A man who feared being on the field, a man who forgot the simple mechanics of passing, a man who, as once quoted so elegantly by the Jets’ quarterback, Sam Darnold, “was seeing ghosts.”

But was he seeing ghosts because the Kansas City Chiefs defense was that good or has Phillip Rivers lost his physical giftedness that all football players require in order to perform their duties adequately? The answer is the latter. Aside from his 50-yard completion to wide receiver, Mike Williams, who deserves more credit for making that catch than Rivers for making that the throw, Rivers looked awful. However, Rivers has looked bad this whole season. Rivers’ passer rating (85.5) ranks in the bottom 10 of all current starting quarterbacks and has thrown the second most interceptions this year (Jameis Winston is last). In fact, Rivers has thrown a combined seven interceptions in just his last two games. But it’s not just the picks that are so embarrassing but rather the blatantly ugly throws being made that leaves everyone scratching their heads and wondering, “is he trying to lose the game?” Specifically, the failed two-minute drive, which was capped by Rivers’ fourth pick during the game, had Rivers going four for eleven passing. One of these misses went straight into the ground and nosedived just a yard away from where Rivers was standing. This “pass” was so awkward that the refs at first called it a fumble and allowed the play to continue (upon review it was ruled an incomplete forward pass). One missed pass in this drive occurred when Rivers threw a bomb, out of bounds, and the nearest receiver was tripled covered. Another missed throw was to a wide-open receiver who ran a post route, but the ball fell five to seven yards short (and it wasn’t tipped).

Everyone on the Chargers played better than the Chiefs except for Phillip Rivers. The Chargers held last year’s MVP, Kansas City Chiefs’ quarterback, Patrick Mahomes, to just 63 yards passing in the first half. The Chargers had more first downs, more time of possession, more total yards, more passing yards, more plays and more total yards per play than the Chiefs. Actually, if it wasn’t for Rivers’ four picks, the Chargers would have probably won the game. This is the worst part about Phillip Rivers’ whole demise – everyone realizes that the future hall of fame quarterback is no longer winning games but losing games for the Chargers. With Rivers’ contract up in 2020, it seems all too likely that the Chargers will move on from Rivers.

The demise of Rivers and the decision to move on from him is no easy maneuver. Below are Rivers’, Eli Manning’s, and Peyton Manning’s Quarter Back Rating statistics (“QBR”) and interceptions from the 2006 through the 2018 seasons (note that Peyton’s information goes through 2015 as that was the year he retired).

 

To ascertain a trend for when it is typical to depart from a franchise quarterback is difficult to determine from the metrics above. Peyton Manning’s QBR and interceptions correlate together. For instance, during Peyton’s worse year, 2015 (and the last year he played), he had his worse QBR and also threw his most picks. Eli is more erratic in that even when he throws a lot of picks (i.e. 2010) his QBR is still holding steady at around 60. However, notice that since 2015 his QBR has tanked and has never been able to come up above 50, even though his interceptions are fewer than in years prior. It’s no surprise that Eli was benched this year as his play has been decreasing for the past four years. Not only the current play on the field, but the past data points indicate he was in decline. Rivers, on the other hand, is hard to predict. He has been able to steadily increase his QBR and lower his interceptions since 2015. Whereas Eli had a history of decline, Rivers has a recent history of improvement.

Therefore, The Cornercube predicts that Rivers will have a decline similar to what Peyton Manning had in his 2015 season. In 2014 Peyton had a QBR of 72 and then suddenly dropped to a QBR of 49.3 during the 2015 season. Rivers had a QBR of 69.1 in 2018 and currently holds a QBR of 46.0 through Week 11 of the 2019 NFL season. Both had drastic QBR drops from one season to the next and the QBRs are under 50. For a veteran quarterback to have a QBR under 50 is a tell-tale sign that the end is near. For Peyton he retired immediately after the 2015 season.

There are certain things a viewer is expected to see when watching Phillip Rivers play: (1) having to hear how many kids he has; (2) having to hear how he and Eli Manning were traded during the 2004 NFL draft; (3) seeing him cry and yell (he is a tool); (4) and now watching him throw picks, panic in the pocket, and do anything he can to go three and out so he no longer has to be on the field. Peyton Manning might have physically deteriorated in 2015, but he didn’t panic.