The AFC May Collapse

By: Kris Mead

As Tom Brady makes his ninth Super Bowl appearance this Sunday, many fans (and presumably players and coaches) are hoping it isn’t just his last championship appearance, but his last NFL football game. If these fans get their wish it will be a detriment, especially to the American Football Conference (“AFC”).

The theory is something similar to Peyton Manning’s Super Bowl victory when he defeated the Carolina Panthers and road off into the sunlight hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. However, Peyton and Tom are two entirely different quarterbacks. Manning won Super Bowl L while his performance was anything, but fluent. In 2015, according to Pro Football Reference, Manning’s 2015 (his last year) performance was statistically not stellar. In 2015 Manning had the lowest QBR of any of his seventeen seasons in the NFL, had the lowest passer rating in his career, and threw the most interceptions in any one of his seasons. If it wasn’t for Denver’s great defense, it would be extremely unlikely that Denver, even with Manning, would have made it to the Super Bowl. On the other hand, if Tom Brady was not the quarterback for the Patriots, it would be unlikely that they would even be representing the AFC in this year’s Super Bowl.

The first issue with this “appeasement theory,” is the fact that Tom himself has said, explicitly that he has no intention of retiring after this season. In an interview with ESPN’s Jeff Darlington, Brady stated “there is zero chance” after the Super Bowl. However, this shouldn’t be a groundbreaking realization as Brady has previously stated that he plans to retire when he turns 45 (currently he is 41).

The second reason why the “appeasement theory” is not beneficial to the NFL, particularly the AFC, is simply because there will be an unequal balance of power. Sure, it could be said that currently the balance of power is unequal because the Patriots have been in four of the past ten super bowls, but, ironically, Peyton Manning and the Pittsburgh Steelers’ quarterback, Ben Rapistberger, have been the balance of power to prevent that number from skyrocketing. In the ten years prior to Peyton’s retirement (2016), Tom made a Super Bowl appearance only three times. One of those appearances was in a season when Peyton was out for the year with a neck injury (2011 Season). Even more alarming is that in those ten years (2007 - 2016 season) Peyton made four super bowl appearances and then Rapistberger had two of those Super Bowl appearances. Yes, New England was a dynasty because they have won more times than not when they have entered a Super Bowl, but it isn’t because they have routinely – year after year – been to the Super Bowl.

Of course, once Manning retired the balance of power in the AFC was ripped away and Brady, alongside his fellow Patriots, assumed complete control. There is nothing more indicative of this notion than the fact that the Patriots, after Sunday, will have represented the AFC in the past three consecutive Super Bowls.

If Tom Brady were to follow through with this “appeasement theory” what would happen? First, there would be a power vacuum in the AFC. That being said, many of the great quarterbacks (naturally good quarterbacks are associated with good teams) are some of the oldest quarterbacks in the league. For instance Phillip Rivers and Ben Rapistberger are both in their late thirties. Unlike Brady both of these quarterbacks have shown depreciation. Rivers, although he had a great year this year, seems to already be preparing his life to be one of the first Hall of Fame quarterbacks to not only not win a super bowl, but never appear in one either. In a January 2019 New York Times article, written by Benjamin Hoffman, it discusses how “while [Rivers] may not have as high of a profile as two other big-name quarterbacks taken in the 2004 draft — Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger — the case can be made that he was better than either of his famous peers in the regular season.” The key phrase is “regular season.” A power vacuum cannot be relegated to simply the regular season, but must be won in the playoffs.

As for Rapistberger, he has already flirted with the thought of retirement and made it expressly known to the world. Further, although Rapistberger just signed an extension, it does not absolve him of the fact that the Pittsburgh Steelers are the closest NFL franchise to being the equivalent of MTV’s Jersey Shore. With arguably the best running back in the NFL, Le’Veon Bell, holding out for the entire 2018 season and looking more and more like he will never play for the Steelers again, and the fact that fellow pro bowl wide receiver, Antonio Brown,  is looking like he will be traded, after not feeling “respected” in Pittsburgh, it isn’t hard to argue that the Steelers are no longer the perennial force in the AFC North, let alone a favorite to represent the AFC in the super bowl.

So then there are the younger AFC quarterbacks. First there is DeShaun Watson of the Houston Texans. However, Houston appears to be more and more like what the Cincinnati Bengals were back when Andy Dalton first arrived – one and done in the playoffs. Further, this past year Watson’s QBR took a drastic drop compared to his rookie year. The other issue is the Houston Texan’s defense is never fully healthy. When the backside is fully healthy, JJ Watt or Clowney are sidelined and vice versa, as it was this year. Then there is Andrew Luck who had an amazing season after being sidelined all of last year, but that was about all there was to say about the Colts. The Colts still seem to be riding the same strategy that they used when they had Peyton Manning – make Manning carry both the offense and the defense to victory. If anything, the only other notable player on the Colts is Luck’s wide receiver T.Y. Hilton. This is the same when Peyton played the only notable players were – Reggie Wayne or wide receiver, Marvin Harrison (of course defensive ends, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, were there but it still seemed that Peyton had to make up for the defense’ deficiencies most of the time).

In turn, if Tom were to leave, and this is assuming that New England would have a significant drop off, then that leaves only one AFC team to assume that power vacuum – Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have everything to be the next dynasty in the AFC. They have an outstanding young quarterback in Patrick Mahomes. Even with Kareem Hunt’s departure, they have not missed a beat running the ball and their wide receivers are led by the likes of Tyreek Hill. The defense, namely their secondary, needs assistance but for the most part is sturdy. However, what makes them even better isn’t the addition of any one player but the subtraction of Brady from the NFL. For if any of the other aforementioned quarterbacks were going up against the Chiefs in this year’s AFC Championship Game, the Chiefs would have won and done so relatively easily. The Chiefs are the only hope for a balanced AFC, and although the Chiefs lost this year, they did not do so embarrassingly nor did they lose without controversy. However, Brady is the Ying to the Chiefs’ Yang. To keep Brady in check the Chiefs are necessary and to keep the Chiefs in check Brady is necessary.

Therefore, if the “appeasement theory” were to become true, the only people to be happy would be Chief fans. However, all the other NFL fans would be upset, just as they are upset now with New England. That is because the Chiefs would become an unchecked power in the AFC. Right now they are only partially checked by the Patriots, since if the Chiefs were to play the Patriots again, Kansas City would have a fair chance at beating them. Hence, what a Brady does for NFL fans is provide them with entertaining, competitive games. If Tom were to retire, it would be like the USSR crumbling in 1945. Yes America would be the world’s lone super power, but it wouldn’t nearly be as advanced as it is today. The Chiefs are the AFC’s America, and they will be the next great AFC super power.  But they will never be the greatest super power until they beat the greatest super power – New England Patriots – in the playoffs.